# Handling Climate Change Using Counterfactuals: Using Counterfactuals in Data Augmentation to Predict Crop Growth in an Uncertain Climate Future

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.04008 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.04008/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Apr 2021.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Counterfactual Explanations without Opening the Black Box: Automated Decisions and the GDPR](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00399/) (2017)
- [Explaining Machine Learning Classifiers through Diverse Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07697/) (2019)
- [Algorithmic Recourse: from Counterfactual Explanations to Interventions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06278/) (2020)
- [A survey of algorithmic recourse: definitions, formulations, solutions, and prospects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.04050/) (2020)
- [Counterfactual Data Augmentation using Locally Factored Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02863/) (2020)
- [If Only We Had Better Counterfactual Explanations: Five Key Deficits to Rectify in the Evaluation of Counterfactual XAI Techniques](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.01035/) (2021)
- [Good Counterfactuals and Where to Find Them: A Case-Based Technique for Generating Counterfactuals for Explainable AI (XAI)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.13997/) (2020)
- [GeCo: Quality Counterfactual Explanations in Real Time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.01292/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Solving the Class Imbalance Problem Using a Counterfactual Method for Data Augmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.03516/) (2021)
- [Augmenting The Weather: A Hybrid Counterfactual-SMOTE Algorithm for Improving Crop Growth Prediction When Climate Changes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.11945/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Climate change poses a major challenge to humanity, especially in its impact on agriculture, a challenge that a responsible AI should meet. In this paper, we examine a CBR system (PBI-CBR) designed to aid sustainable dairy farming by supporting grassland management, through accurate crop growth prediction. As climate changes, PBI-CBRs historical cases become less useful in predicting future grass growth. Hence, we extend PBI-CBR using data augmentation, to specifically handle disruptive climate events, using a counterfactual method (from XAI). Study 1 shows that historical, extreme climate-events (climate outlier cases) tend to be used by PBI-CBR to predict grass growth during climate disrupted periods. Study 2 shows that synthetic outliers, generated as counterfactuals on a outlier-boundary, improve the predictive accuracy of PBICBR, during the drought of 2018. This study also shows that an instance-based counterfactual method does better than a benchmark, constraint-guided method.