# Spatio-Temporal Neural Network for Fitting and Forecasting COVID-19

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.11860 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.11860/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 46 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 22 Mar 2021.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [An overview of gradient descent optimization algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.04747/) (2016)
- [On the Convergence of Adam and Beyond](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.09237/) (2019)
- [SGD: General Analysis and Improved Rates](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.09401/) (2019)
- [Better Theory for SGD in the Nonconvex World](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.03329/) (2020)
- [Stochastic Gradient Descent for Nonconvex Learning without Bounded Gradient Assumptions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.00908/) (2019)
- [A SIDARTHE Model of COVID-19 Epidemic in Italy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.09861/) (2020)
- [Spatio-Temporal Neural Networks for Space-Time Series Forecasting and Relations Discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.08562/) (2018)
- [A Recurrent Neural Network and Differential Equation Based Spatiotemporal Infectious Disease Model with Application to COVID-19](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.10929/) (2020)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We established a Spatio-Temporal Neural Network, namely STNN, to forecast the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak worldwide in 2020. The basic structure of STNN is similar to the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) incorporating with not only temporal data but also spatial features. Two improved STNN architectures, namely the STNN with Augmented Spatial States (STNN-A) and the STNN with Input Gate (STNN-I), are proposed, which ensure more predictability and flexibility. STNN and its variants can be trained using Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) algorithm and its improved variants (e.g., Adam, AdaGrad and RMSProp). Our STNN models are compared with several classical epidemic prediction models, including the fully-connected neural network (BPNN), and the recurrent neural network (RNN), the classical curve fitting models, as well as the SEIR dynamical system model. Numerical simulations demonstrate that STNN models outperform many others by providing more accurate fitting and prediction, and by handling both spatial and temporal data.