# Improving Uncertainty Calibration via Prior Augmented Data

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.10803 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.10803/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 18 of its 25 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 22 Feb 2021.

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [Explaining and Harnessing Adversarial Examples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6572/) (2014)
- [mixup: Beyond Empirical Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.09412/) (2017)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Benchmarking Neural Network Robustness to Common Corruptions and Perturbations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.12261/) (2019)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Deep Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.06114/) (2017)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [A Simple Baseline for Bayesian Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.02476/) (2019)
- [Weight Uncertainty in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05424/) (2015)
- [Bayesian Deep Learning and a Probabilistic Perspective of Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.08791/) (2020)
- [Accurate Uncertainties for Deep Learning Using Calibrated Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.00263/) (2018)
- [On Mixup Training: Improved Calibration and Predictive Uncertainty for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11001/) (2019)
- [Probabilistic Backpropagation for Scalable Learning of Bayesian Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.05336/) (2015)
- [Efficient and Scalable Bayesian Neural Nets with Rank-1 Factors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.07186/) (2020)
- [Functional Variational Bayesian Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.05779/) (2019)
- [Depth Uncertainty in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.08437/) (2020)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Neural networks have proven successful at learning from complex data distributions by acting as universal function approximators. However, they are often overconfident in their predictions, which leads to inaccurate and miscalibrated probabilistic predictions. The problem of overconfidence becomes especially apparent in cases where the test-time data distribution differs from that which was seen during training. We propose a solution to this problem by seeking out regions of feature space where the model is unjustifiably overconfident, and conditionally raising the entropy of those predictions towards that of the prior distribution of the labels. Our method results in a better calibrated network and is agnostic to the underlying model structure, so it can be applied to any neural network which produces a probability density as an output. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method and validate its performance on both classification and regression problems, applying it to recent probabilistic neural network models.