# Probability Trajectory: One New Movement Description for Trajectory Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.10595 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.10595/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 27 of its 54 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 Jan 2021.

## Builds on (most cited first, 27 of 27)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Neural Machine Translation by Jointly Learning to Align and Translate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.0473/) (2014)
- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [CBAM: Convolutional Block Attention Module](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.06521/) (2018)
- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [Show, Attend and Tell: Neural Image Caption Generation with Visual Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.03044/) (2015)
- [Show and Tell: A Neural Image Caption Generator](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1411.4555/) (2014)
- [Social GAN: Socially Acceptable Trajectories with Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.10892/) (2018)
- [Long-term Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Visual Recognition and Description](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1411.4389/) (2014)
- [Unsupervised Learning of Video Representations using LSTMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.04681/) (2015)
- [GMAN: A Graph Multi-Attention Network for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.08415/) (2019)
- [MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.05449/) (2019)
- [A Recurrent Latent Variable Model for Sequential Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02216/) (2015)
- [SoPhie: An Attentive GAN for Predicting Paths Compliant to Social and Physical Constraints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.01482/) (2018)
- [Image Captioning with Semantic Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.03925/) (2016)
- [Deep Convolutional Networks on Graph-Structured Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.05163/) (2015)
- [Social Attention: Modeling Attention in Human Crowds](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.04689/) (2017)
- [Multiple Futures Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.00997/) (2019)
- [Peeking into the Future: Predicting Future Person Activities and Locations in Videos](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.03748/) (2019)
- [SR-LSTM: State Refinement for LSTM towards Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.02793/) (2019)
- [Wing Loss for Robust Facial Landmark Localisation with Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.06753/) (2017)
- [Deep Fragment Embeddings for Bidirectional Image Sentence Mapping](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.5679/) (2014)
- [Overcoming Limitations of Mixture Density Networks: A Sampling and Fitting Framework for Multimodal Future Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.03631/) (2019)
- [The Garden of Forking Paths: Towards Multi-Future Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.06445/) (2019)
- [End-to-end Continuous Speech Recognition using Attention-based Recurrent NN: First Results](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.1602/) (2014)
- [Recursive Social Behavior Graph for Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.10402/) (2020)
- [Analyzing the Variety Loss in the Context of Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.10178/) (2019)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Trajectory prediction is a fundamental and challenging task for numerous applications, such as autonomous driving and intelligent robots. Currently, most of existing work treat the pedestrian trajectory as a series of fixed two-dimensional coordinates. However, in real scenarios, the trajectory often exhibits randomness, and has its own probability distribution. Inspired by this observed fact, also considering other movement characteristics of pedestrians, we propose one simple and intuitive movement description, probability trajectory, which maps the coordinate points of pedestrian trajectory into two-dimensional Gaussian distribution in images. Based on this unique description, we develop one novel trajectory prediction method, called social probability. The method combines the new probability trajectory and powerful convolution recurrent neural networks together. Both the input and output of our method are probability trajectories, which provide the recurrent neural network with sufficient spatial and random information of moving pedestrians. And the social probability extracts spatio-temporal features directly on the new movement description to generate robust and accurate predicted results. The experiments on public benchmark datasets show the effectiveness of the proposed method.