# From Goals, Waypoints & Paths To Long Term Human Trajectory Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.01526 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.01526/

## Key facts

- Cited by 167 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 2 Dec 2020.

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 167)

- [Stochastic Trajectory Prediction via Motion Indeterminacy Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.13777/) (2022)
- [Think Twice before Driving: Towards Scalable Decoders for End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.06242/) (2023)
- [GOHOME: Graph-Oriented Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.01827/) (2021)
- [Trace and Pace: Controllable Pedestrian Animation via Guided Trajectory Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.01893/) (2023)
- [Leapfrog Diffusion Model for Stochastic Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.10895/) (2023)
- [Vision Language Models in Autonomous Driving: A Survey and Outlook](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.14414/) (2023)
- [HOME: Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.10968/) (2021)
- [Joint Hand Motion and Interaction Hotspots Prediction from Egocentric Videos](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.01696/) (2022)
- [SocialVAE: Human Trajectory Prediction using Timewise Latents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.08207/) (2022)
- [Human Trajectory Prediction via Neural Social Physics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.10435/) (2022)
- [MUSE-VAE: Multi-Scale VAE for Environment-Aware Long Term Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.07189/) (2022)
- [LOKI: Long Term and Key Intentions for Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.08236/) (2021)
- [Adaptive Trajectory Prediction via Transferable GNN](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.05046/) (2022)
- [Uncovering the Missing Pattern: Unified Framework Towards Trajectory Imputation and Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.16005/) (2023)
- [View Vertically: A Hierarchical Network for Trajectory Prediction via Fourier Spectrums](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.07288/) (2021)
- [EigenTrajectory: Low-Rank Descriptors for Multi-Modal Trajectory Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.09306/) (2023)
- [Towards Robust and Adaptive Motion Forecasting: A Causal Representation Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.14820/) (2021)
- [Social-Implicit: Rethinking Trajectory Prediction Evaluation and The Effectiveness of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.03057/) (2022)
- [SingularTrajectory: Universal Trajectory Predictor Using Diffusion Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.18452/) (2024)
- [Social-Transmotion: Promptable Human Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.16168/) (2023)
- [FEND: A Future Enhanced Distribution-Aware Contrastive Learning Framework for Long-tail Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.16574/) (2023)
- [Can Language Beat Numerical Regression? Language-Based Multimodal Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.18447/) (2024)
- [MoFlow: One-Step Flow Matching for Human Trajectory Forecasting via Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation based Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.09950/) (2025)
- [Multi-agent Long-term 3D Human Pose Forecasting via Interaction-aware Trajectory Conditioning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.05218/) (2024)
- [Goal-driven Self-Attentive Recurrent Networks for Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.11561/) (2022)
- [Quo Vadis: Is Trajectory Forecasting the Key Towards Long-Term Multi-Object Tracking?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.07681/) (2022)
- [Divide-and-Conquer Posterior Sampling for Denoising Diffusion Priors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.11407/) (2024)
- [Fast Inference and Update of Probabilistic Density Estimation on Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.08824/) (2023)
- [SocialCircle: Learning the Angle-based Social Interaction Representation for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.05370/) (2023)
- [SMEMO: Social Memory for Trajectory Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.12446/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Human trajectory forecasting is an inherently multi-modal problem. Uncertainty in future trajectories stems from two sources: (a) sources that are known to the agent but unknown to the model, such as long term goals and (b)sources that are unknown to both the agent & the model, such as intent of other agents & irreducible randomness indecisions. We propose to factorize this uncertainty into its epistemic & aleatoric sources. We model the epistemic un-certainty through multimodality in long term goals and the aleatoric uncertainty through multimodality in waypoints& paths. To exemplify this dichotomy, we also propose a novel long term trajectory forecasting setting, with prediction horizons upto a minute, an order of magnitude longer than prior works. Finally, we presentY-net, a scene com-pliant trajectory forecasting network that exploits the pro-posed epistemic & aleatoric structure for diverse trajectory predictions across long prediction horizons.Y-net significantly improves previous state-of-the-art performance on both (a) The well studied short prediction horizon settings on the Stanford Drone & ETH/UCY datasets and (b) The proposed long prediction horizon setting on the re-purposed Stanford Drone & Intersection Drone datasets.