# Anticipatory Ethics and the Role of Uncertainty

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.13170 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13170/

## Key facts

- Cited by 8 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 26 Nov 2020.

## Built on by (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Assessing the Fairness of AI Systems: AI Practitioners' Processes, Challenges, and Needs for Support](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.05675/) (2021)
- [Farsight: Fostering Responsible AI Awareness During AI Application Prototyping](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.15350/) (2024)
- [BLIP: Facilitating the Exploration of Undesirable Consequences of Digital Technologies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.06783/) (2024)
- [Simulating Policy Impacts: Developing a Generative Scenario Writing Method to Evaluate the Perceived Effects of Regulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.09679/) (2024)
- [Scenarios in Computing Research: A Systematic Review of the Use of Scenario Methods for Exploring the Future of Computing Technologies in Society](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.05605/) (2025)
- [Evaluating the Capabilities of LLMs for Supporting Anticipatory Impact Assessment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.18028/) (2024)
- [Towards Leveraging News Media to Support Impact Assessment of AI Technologies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.02536/) (2024)
- [Informing AI Policy Assessment using Large-Scale Simulation of Interventions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.27395/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Making conjectures about future consequences of a technology is an exercise in trying to reduce various forms of uncertainty. Both to produce and reason about these conjectures requires understanding their potential limitations. In other words, we need systematic ways of considering uncertainty associated with given conjectures for downstream consequences. In this work, we frame the task of considering future consequences as an anticipatory ethics problem, where the goal is to develop scenarios that reflect plausible outcomes and their ethical implications following a technology's introduction into society. In order to shed light on how various forms of uncertainty might inform how we reason about a resulting scenario, we provide a characterization of the types of uncertainty that arise in a potential scenario-building process.