# Delayed Feedback Modeling for the Entire Space Conversion Rate Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.11826 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.11826/

## Key facts

- Cited by 11 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 24 Nov 2020.

## Built on by (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [STEM: Unleashing the Power of Embeddings for Multi-task Recommendation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.13537/) (2023)
- [A Generalized Doubly Robust Learning Framework for Debiasing Post-Click Conversion Rate Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.06684/) (2022)
- [Asymptotically Unbiased Estimation for Delayed Feedback Modeling via Label Correction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.06472/) (2022)
- [Generalized Delayed Feedback Model with Post-Click Information in Recommender Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00407/) (2022)
- [Capturing Conversion Rate Fluctuation during Sales Promotions: A Novel Historical Data Reuse Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.12837/) (2023)
- [An Analysis Of Entire Space Multi-Task Models For Post-Click Conversion Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.13475/) (2021)
- [MetaCVR: Conversion Rate Prediction via Meta Learning in Small-Scale Recommendation Scenarios](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.13753/) (2021)
- [Towards Trustworthy AI-Empowered Real-Time Bidding for Online Advertisement Auctioning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.07770/) (2022)
- [Delayed Feedback Modeling for Post-Click Gross Merchandise Volume Prediction: Benchmark, Insights and Approaches](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.20307/) (2026)
- [Personalized Interpolation: Achieving Efficient Conversion Estimation with Flexible Optimization Windows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.14103/) (2025)
- [Follow the TRACE: Exploiting Post-Click Trajectories for Online Delayed Conversion Rate Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.23197/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Estimating post-click conversion rate (CVR) accurately is crucial in E-commerce. However, CVR prediction usually suffers from three major challenges in practice: i) data sparsity: compared with impressions, conversion samples are often extremely scarce; ii) sample selection bias: conventional CVR models are trained with clicked impressions while making inference on the entire space of all impressions; iii) delayed feedback: many conversions can only be observed after a relatively long and random delay since clicks happened, resulting in many false negative labels during training. Previous studies mainly focus on one or two issues while ignoring the others. In this paper, we propose a novel neural network framework ESDF to tackle the above three challenges simultaneously. Unlike existing methods, ESDF models the CVR prediction from a perspective of entire space, and combines the advantage of user sequential behavior pattern and the time delay factor. Specifically, ESDF utilizes sequential behavior of user actions on the entire space with all impressions to alleviate the sample selection bias problem. By sharing the embedding parameters between CTR and CVR networks, data sparsity problem is greatly relieved. Different from conventional delayed feedback methods, ESDF does not make any special assumption about the delay distribution. We discretize the delay time by day slot and model the probability based on survival analysis with deep neural network, which is more practical and suitable for industrial situations. Extensive experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of our method. To the best of our knowledge, ESDF is the first attempt to unitedly solve the above three challenges in CVR prediction area.