# Probabilistic Hosting Capacity Analysis via Bayesian Optimization

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.05193 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.05193/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 10 Nov 2020.

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [An Active Learning-based Approach for Hosting Capacity Analysis in Distribution Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.07818/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper studies the probabilistic hosting capacity analysis (PHCA) problem in distribution networks considering uncertainties from distributed energy resources (DERs) and residential loads. PHCA aims to compute the hosting capacity, which is defined as the maximal level of DERs that can be securely integrated into a distribution network while satisfying operational constraints with high probability. We formulate PHCA as a chance-constrained optimization problem, and model the uncertainties from DERs and loads using historical data. Due to non-convexities and a substantial number of historical scenarios being used, PHCA is often formulated as large-scale nonlinear optimization problem, thus computationally intractable to solve. To address the core computational challenges, we propose a fast and extensible framework to solve PHCA based on Bayesian Optimization (BayesOpt). Comparing with state-of-the-art algorithms such as interior point and active set, numerical results show that the proposed BayesOpt approach is able to find better solutions (25% higher hosting capacity) with 70% savings in computation time on average.