# Performative Prediction in a Stateful World

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.03885 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.03885/

## Key facts

- Cited by 90 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 8 Nov 2020.

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 90)

- [Outside the Echo Chamber: Optimizing the Performative Risk](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.08570/) (2021)
- [How to Learn when Data Reacts to Your Model: Performative Gradient Descent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.07698/) (2021)
- [Data Feedback Loops: Model-driven Amplification of Dataset Biases](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.03942/) (2022)
- [Strategic Classification Made Practical](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.01826/) (2021)
- [Who Leads and Who Follows in Strategic Classification?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.12529/) (2021)
- [Performative Prediction: Past and Future](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.16608/) (2023)
- [Alternative Microfoundations for Strategic Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.12705/) (2021)
- [Multiplayer Performative Prediction: Learning in Decision-Dependent Games](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.03398/) (2022)
- [Performative Power](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.17232/) (2022)
- [Regret Minimization with Performative Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.00628/) (2022)
- [Performative Prediction with Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.06879/) (2023)
- [Multi-agent Performative Prediction: From Global Stability and Optimality to Chaos](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.10483/) (2022)
- [Making Decisions under Outcome Performativity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.01745/) (2022)
- [Decision-Dependent Risk Minimization in Geometrically Decaying Dynamic Environments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.08281/) (2022)
- [How to Learn when Data Gradually Reacts to Your Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.07042/) (2021)
- [Performative Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.00046/) (2022)
- [Preference Dynamics Under Personalized Recommendations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13026/) (2022)
- [Plug-in Performative Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18728/) (2023)
- [Zeroth-Order Methods for Convex-Concave Minmax Problems: Applications to Decision-Dependent Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09082/) (2021)
- [Performative Federated Learning: A Solution to Model-Dependent and Heterogeneous Distribution Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.05090/) (2023)
- [Performative Reinforcement Learning in Gradually Shifting Environments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.09838/) (2024)
- [Human Expertise in Algorithmic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.00793/) (2024)
- [Stochastic Approximation with Decision-Dependent Distributions: Asymptotic Normality and Optimality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.04173/) (2022)
- [Performative Recommendation: Diversifying Content via Strategic Incentives](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.04336/) (2023)
- [Approximate Regions of Attraction in Learning with Decision-Dependent Distributions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.00055/) (2021)
- [Performative Prediction with Bandit Feedback: Learning through Reparameterization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.01094/) (2023)
- [Addressing Polarization and Unfairness in Performative Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16756/) (2024)
- [Revisiting the Predictability of Performative, Social Events](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.11713/) (2025)
- [Zero-Regret Performative Prediction Under Inequality Constraints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.12618/) (2023)
- [Model Transferability With Responsive Decision Subjects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.05911/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Deployed supervised machine learning models make predictions that interact with and influence the world. This phenomenon is called performative prediction by Perdomo et al. (ICML 2020). It is an ongoing challenge to understand the influence of such predictions as well as design tools so as to control that influence. We propose a theoretical framework where the response of a target population to the deployed classifier is modeled as a function of the classifier and the current state (distribution) of the population. We show necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence to an equilibrium of two retraining algorithms, repeated risk minimization and a lazier variant. Furthermore, convergence is near an optimal classifier. We thus generalize results of Perdomo et al., whose performativity framework does not assume any dependence on the state of the target population. A particular phenomenon captured by our model is that of distinct groups that acquire information and resources at different rates to be able to respond to the latest deployed classifier. We study this phenomenon theoretically and empirically.