# Lockdown effects in US states: an artificial counterfactual approach

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.13484 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.13484/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 28 Sep 2020.

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [The Proper Use of Google Trends in Forecasting Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.03065/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We adopt an artificial counterfactual approach to assess the impact of lockdowns on the short-run evolution of the number of cases and deaths in some US states. To do so, we explore the different timing in which US states adopted lockdown policies, and divide them among treated and control groups. For each treated state, we construct an artificial counterfactual. On average, and in the very short-run, the counterfactual accumulated number of cases would be two times larger if lockdown policies were not implemented.