# The impact of social influence in Australian real-estate: market forecasting with a spatial agent-based model

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.06914 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.06914/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 15 Sep 2020.

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [A maximum entropy model of bounded rational decision-making with prior beliefs and market feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.09180/) (2021)
- [Bounded rationality for relaxing best response and mutual consistency: The Quantal Hierarchy model of decision-making](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.15844/) (2021)
- [Investigating Tax Evasion Emergence Using Dual Large Language Model and Deep Reinforcement Learning Powered Agent-based Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.18177/) (2025)
- [Simulate and Optimise: A two-layer mortgage simulator for designing novel mortgage assistance products](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.00563/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Housing markets are inherently spatial, yet many existing models fail to capture this spatial dimension. Here we introduce a new graph-based approach for incorporating a spatial component in a large-scale urban housing agent-based model (ABM). The model explicitly captures several social and economic factors that influence the agents' decision-making behaviour (such as fear of missing out, their trend following aptitude, and the strength of their submarket outreach), and interprets these factors in spatial terms. The proposed model is calibrated and validated with the housing market data for the Greater Sydney region. The ABM simulation results not only include predictions for the overall market, but also produce area-specific forecasting at the level of local government areas within Sydney as arising from individual buy and sell decisions. In addition, the simulation results elucidate agent preferences in submarkets, highlighting differences in agent behaviour, for example, between first-time home buyers and investors, and between both local and overseas investors.