# Na"ive regression requires weaker assumptions than factor models to adjust for multiple cause confounding

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.12702 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.12702/

## Key facts

- Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 24 Jul 2020.

## Built on by (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Learning latent causal graphs via mixture oracles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.15563/) (2021)
- [Debiasing Recommendation by Learning Identifiable Latent Confounders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.05052/) (2023)
- [Substitute adjustment via recovery of latent variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.00202/) (2024)
- [Sample Observed Effects: Enumeration, Randomization and Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.04376/) (2021)
- [Spectrally Deconfounded Gradient Boosting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.09371/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The empirical practice of using factor models to adjust for shared, unobserved confounders, Z, in observational settings with multiple treatments, A, is widespread in fields including genetics, networks, medicine, and politics. Wang and Blei (2019, WB) formalizes these procedures and develops the "deconfounder," a causal inference method using factor models of A to estimate "substitute confounders," hatZ, then estimating treatment effects by regressing the outcome, Y, on part of A while adjusting for hatZ. WB claim the deconfounder is unbiased when there are no single-cause confounders and hatZ is "pinpointed." We clarify pinpointing requires each confounder to affect infinitely many treatments. We prove under these assumptions, a na"ive semiparametric regression of Y on A is asymptotically unbiased. Deconfounder variants nesting this regression are therefore also asymptotically unbiased, but variants using hatZ and subsets of causes require further untestable assumptions. We replicate every deconfounder analysis with available data and find it fails to consistently outperform na"ive regression. In practice, the deconfounder produces implausible estimates in WB's case study to movie earnings: estimates suggest comic author Stan Lee's cameo appearances causally contributed 15.5 billion, most of Marvel movie revenue. We conclude neither approach is a viable substitute for careful research design in real-world applications.