# Adversarial Risk Analysis (Overview)

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.02613 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02613/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 6 Jul 2020.

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Evasion Attacks Against Bayesian Predictive Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.09640/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Adversarial risk analysis (ARA) is a relatively new area of research that informs decision-making when facing intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. It enables an analyst to express her Bayesian beliefs about an opponent's utilities, capabilities, probabilities and the type of strategic calculation that the opponent is using. Within that framework, the analyst then solves the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on all unknown quantities. This produces a distribution over the actions of the opponent that permits the analyst to maximize her expected utility. This overview covers conceptual, modeling, computational and applied issues in ARA.