# From Probability to Consilience: How Explanatory Values Implement Bayesian Reasoning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.02359 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.02359/

## Key facts

- Cited by 7 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 3 Jun 2020.

## Built on by (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [TabPFN: A Transformer That Solves Small Tabular Classification Problems in a Second](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.01848/) (2022)
- [Evaluating Explanations: An Explanatory Virtues Framework for Mechanistic Interpretability -- The Strange Science Part I.ii](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.01372/) (2025)
- [The Diversity of Argument-Making in the Wild: from Assumptions and Definitions to Causation and Anecdote in Reddit's "Change My View"](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.07938/) (2022)
- [GRATR: Zero-Shot Evidence Graph Retrieval-Augmented Trustworthiness Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.12333/) (2024)
- [Explaining Necessary Truths](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.11251/) (2025)
- [Belief Attribution as Mental Explanation: The Role of Accuracy, Informativity, and Causality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.19376/) (2025)
- [How are Scientific Concepts Birthed? Typing Rules of Concept Formation in Theoretical Physics Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.10740/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Recent work in cognitive science has uncovered a diversity of explanatory values, or dimensions along which we judge explanations as better or worse. We propose a Bayesian account of how these values fit together to guide explanation. The resulting taxonomy provides a set of predictors for which explanations people prefer and shows how core values from psychology, statistics, and the philosophy of science emerge from a common mathematical framework. In addition to operationalizing the explanatory virtues associated with, for example, scientific argument-making, this framework also enables us to reinterpret the explanatory vices that drive conspiracy theories, delusions, and extremist ideologies.