# How to restart? An agent-based simulation model towards the definition of strategies for COVID-19 "second phase" in public buildings

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.12927 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.12927/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 27 Apr 2020.

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Pyfectious: An individual-level simulator to discover optimal containment polices for epidemic diseases](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.15561/) (2021)
- [ArchABM: an agent-based simulator of human interaction with the built environment. CO2 and viral load analysis for indoor air quality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.01484/) (2021)
- [WTTFNet: A Weather-Time-Trajectory Fusion Network for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction in Urban Complex](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.18945/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Restarting public buildings activities in the "second phase" of COVID-19 emergency should be supported by operational measures to avoid a second virus spreading. Buildings hosting the continuous presence of the same users and significant overcrowd conditions over space/time (e.g. large offices, universities) are critical scenarios due to the prolonged contact with infectors. Beside individual's risk-mitigation strategies performed (facial masks), stakeholders should promote additional strategies, i.e. occupants' load limitation (towards "social distancing") and access control. Simulators could support the measures effectiveness evaluation. This work provides an Agent-Based Model to estimate the virus spreading in the closed built environment. The model adopts a probabilistic approach to jointly simulate occupants' movement and virus transmission according to proximity-based and exposure-time-based rules proposed by international health organizations. Scenarios can be defined in terms of building occupancy, mitigation strategies and virus-related aspects. The model is calibrated on experimental data ("Diamond Princess" cruise) and then applied to a relevant case-study (a part of a university campus). Results demonstrate the model capabilities. Concerning the case-study, adopting facial masks seems to be a paramount strategy to reduce virus spreading in each initial condition, by maintaining an acceptable infected people's number. The building capacity limitation could support such measure by potentially moving from FFPk masks to surgical masks use by occupants (thus improving users' comfort issues). A preliminary model to combine acceptable mask filters-occupants' density combination is proposed. The model could be modified to consider other recurring scenarios in other public buildings (e.g. tourist facilities, cultural buildings).