# Conformal e-prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.05989 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.05989/

## Key facts

- Cited by 22 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 16 Jan 2020.

## Built on by (most cited first, 22 of 22)

- [E-Values Expand the Scope of Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.13050/) (2025)
- [Backward Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.13732/) (2025)
- [Adaptive Coverage Policies in Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.04318/) (2025)
- [Universality of conformal prediction under the assumption of randomness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.19254/) (2025)
- [Conformalized Decision Risk Assessment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.13243/) (2025)
- [Fuzzy Prediction Sets: Conformal Prediction with E-values](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.13130/) (2025)
- [E-Scores for (In)Correctness Assessment of Generative Model Outputs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.25770/) (2025)
- [Beyond Procedure: Substantive Fairness in Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.16794/) (2026)
- [Randomness, exchangeability, and conformal prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.11689/) (2025)
- [A Systematic Review of Conformal Inference Procedures for Treatment Effect Estimation: Methods and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.21660/) (2025)
- [Improving Backward Conformal Prediction via Non-Conformity Score Transformation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.01733/) (2026)
- [Conformal e-prediction in the presence of confounding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.11134/) (2026)
- [Elements of Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.23923/) (2026)
- [Concise and Logically Consistent Conformal Sets for Neuro-Symbolic Concept-Based Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.18202/) (2026)
- [Conformal-DRO: Distributionally Robust Optimization with Conformalized Ambiguity Set](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.11073/) (2026)
- [Inductive randomness predictors: beyond conformal](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.02803/) (2025)
- [Aggregation in conformal e-classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.07963/) (2026)
- [Set-Preserving Calibration from Conformal P-Values to E-Values](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.03600/) (2026)
- [Rolling Conformal Prediction in Sequential Model Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.26951/) (2026)
- [Counterfactual Online Conformal Prediction Under Adaptive Logging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.30811/) (2026)
- [SLICE: Sequential Likelihood-Free Inference via Conformal E-Values](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.13855/) (2026)
- [Backward Conformal Prediction under Covariate Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.16048/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper discusses a counterpart of conformal prediction for e-values, conformal e-prediction. Conformal e-prediction is conceptually simpler and had been developed in the 1990s as a precursor of conformal prediction. When conformal prediction emerged as result of replacing e-values by p-values, it seemed to have important advantages over conformal e-prediction without obvious disadvantages. This paper re-examines relations between conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction systematically from a modern perspective. Conformal e-prediction has advantages of its own, such as the ease of designing conditional conformal e-predictors and the guaranteed validity of cross-conformal e-predictors (whereas for cross-conformal predictors validity is only an empirical fact and can be broken with excessive randomization). Even where conformal prediction has clear advantages, conformal e-prediction can often emulate those advantages, more or less successfully.