# Maximizing performance with an eye on the finances: a chance-constrained model for football transfer market decisions

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.04689 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.04689/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 10 Nov 2019.

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Forecasting the future development in quality and value of professional football players](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.07528/) (2025)
- [Hybrid Machine Learning Forecasts for the UEFA EURO 2020](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.05799/) (2021)
- [Modeling and Prediction of the UEFA EURO 2024 via Combined Statistical Learning Approaches](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.09068/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Composing a team of professional players is among the most crucial decisions in association football. Nevertheless, transfer market decisions are often based on myopic objectives and are questionable from a financial point of view. This paper introduces a chance-constrained model to provide analytic support to club managers during transfer windows. The model seeks a top-performing team while adapting to different budgets and financial-risk profiles. In addition, it provides a new rating system that is able to numerically reflect the on-field performance of football players and thus contribute to an objective assessment of football players. The model and rating system are tested on a case study based on real market data. The data from the case study are available online for the benefit of future research.