# MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.05449 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.05449/

## Key facts

- Cited by 420 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 12 Oct 2019.

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 420)

- [Planning-oriented Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10156/) (2022)
- [VAD: Vectorized Scene Representation for Efficient Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12077/) (2023)
- [Large Scale Interactive Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving : The Waymo Open Motion Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.10133/) (2021)
- [AgentFormer: Agent-Aware Transformers for Socio-Temporal Multi-Agent Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14023/) (2021)
- [DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.09640/) (2021)
- [VADv2: End-to-End Vectorized Autonomous Driving via Probabilistic Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.13243/) (2024)
- [Wayformer: Motion Forecasting via Simple & Efficient Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05844/) (2022)
- [Motion Transformer with Global Intention Localization and Local Movement Refinement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.13508/) (2022)
- [MultiPath++: Efficient Information Fusion and Trajectory Aggregation for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.14973/) (2021)
- [FIERY: Future Instance Prediction in Bird's-Eye View from Surround Monocular Cameras](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.10490/) (2021)
- [GenAD: Generative End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.11502/) (2024)
- [MotionDiffuser: Controllable Multi-Agent Motion Prediction using Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03083/) (2023)
- [MP3: A Unified Model to Map, Perceive, Predict and Plan](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.06806/) (2021)
- [Multimodal Motion Prediction with Stacked Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.11624/) (2021)
- [Stochastic Scene-Aware Motion Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.08284/) (2021)
- [ReCogDrive: A Reinforced Cognitive Framework for End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.08052/) (2025)
- [TrafficSim: Learning to Simulate Realistic Multi-Agent Behaviors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.06557/) (2021)
- [Guided Conditional Diffusion for Controllable Traffic Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.17366/) (2022)
- [ORION: A Holistic End-to-End Autonomous Driving Framework by Vision-Language Instructed Action Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.19755/) (2025)
- [Scene Transformer: A unified architecture for predicting multiple agent trajectories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.08417/) (2021)
- [Waymax: An Accelerated, Data-Driven Simulator for Large-Scale Autonomous Driving Research](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08710/) (2023)
- [MotionLM: Multi-Agent Motion Forecasting as Language Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.16534/) (2023)
- [Senna: Bridging Large Vision-Language Models and End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.22313/) (2024)
- [GOHOME: Graph-Oriented Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.01827/) (2021)
- [MTR++: Multi-Agent Motion Prediction with Symmetric Scene Modeling and Guided Intention Querying](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.17770/) (2023)
- [Generating Useful Accident-Prone Driving Scenarios via a Learned Traffic Prior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.05077/) (2021)
- [Trace and Pace: Controllable Pedestrian Animation via Guided Trajectory Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.01893/) (2023)
- [Learning from All Vehicles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11934/) (2022)
- [Imitation Is Not Enough: Robustifying Imitation with Reinforcement Learning for Challenging Driving Scenarios](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.11419/) (2022)
- [HOME: Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.10968/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Predicting human behavior is a difficult and crucial task required for motion planning. It is challenging in large part due to the highly uncertain and multi-modal set of possible outcomes in real-world domains such as autonomous driving. Beyond single MAP trajectory prediction, obtaining an accurate probability distribution of the future is an area of active interest. We present MultiPath, which leverages a fixed set of future state-sequence anchors that correspond to modes of the trajectory distribution. At inference, our model predicts a discrete distribution over the anchors and, for each anchor, regresses offsets from anchor waypoints along with uncertainties, yielding a Gaussian mixture at each time step. Our model is efficient, requiring only one forward inference pass to obtain multi-modal future distributions, and the output is parametric, allowing compact communication and analytical probabilistic queries. We show on several datasets that our model achieves more accurate predictions, and compared to sampling baselines, does so with an order of magnitude fewer trajectories.