# Local alliances and rivalries shape near-repeat terror activity of al-Qaeda, ISIS and insurgents

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.04349 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.04349/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 10 Oct 2019.

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Learning future terrorist targets through temporal meta-graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.10398/) (2021)
- [Temporal Clustering of Disorder Events During the COVID-19 Pandemic](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.06458/) (2021)
- [Multi-modal Networks Reveal Patterns of Operational Similarity of Terrorist Organizations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.07998/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We study the spatiotemporal correlation of terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda, ISIS, and local insurgents, in six geographical areas identified via k-means clustering applied to the Global Terrorism Database. All surveyed organizations exhibit near-repeat activity whereby a prior attack increases the likelihood of a subsequent one by the same group within 20km and on average 4 (al Qaeda) to 10 (ISIS) weeks. Near-response activity, whereby an attack by a given organization elicits further attacks from a different one, is found to depend on the adversarial, neutral or collaborative relationship between the two. When in conflict, local insurgents respond quickly to attacks by global terror groups while global terror groups delay their responses to local insurgents, leading to an asymmetric dynamic. When neutral or allied, attacks by one group enhance the response likelihood of the other, regardless of hierarchy. These trends arise consistently in all clusters for which data is available. Government intervention and spill-over effects are also discussed; we find no evidence of outbidding. Understanding the regional dynamics of terrorism may be greatly beneficial in policy-making and intervention design.