# A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Criminal Investigations

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.01894 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.01894/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 3 Jul 2019.

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [cegpy: Modelling with Chain Event Graphs in Python](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.11366/) (2022)
- [LAPIS: Language Model-Augmented Police Investigation System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.20248/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Potential violent criminals will often need to go through a sequence of preparatory steps before they can execute their plans. During this escalation process police have the opportunity to evaluate the threat posed by such people through what they know, observe and learn from intelligence reports about their activities. In this paper we customise a three-level Bayesian hierarchical model to describe this process. This is able to propagate both routine and unexpected evidence in real time. We discuss how to set up such a model so that it calibrates to domain expert judgments. The model illustrations include a hypothetical example based on a potential vehicle based terrorist attack.