# Conditional Generative Neural System for Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.01631 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.01631/

## Key facts

- Cited by 76 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 5 May 2019.

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 76)

- [Stochastic Trajectory Prediction via Motion Indeterminacy Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.13777/) (2022)
- [Human Trajectory Prediction via Neural Social Physics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.10435/) (2022)
- [Stepwise Goal-Driven Networks for Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14107/) (2021)
- [MG-GAN: A Multi-Generator Model Preventing Out-of-Distribution Samples in Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.09274/) (2021)
- [Trajectory Prediction with Latent Belief Energy-Based Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.03086/) (2021)
- [LOKI: Long Term and Key Intentions for Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.08236/) (2021)
- [Adaptive Trajectory Prediction via Transferable GNN](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.05046/) (2022)
- [Uncovering the Missing Pattern: Unified Framework Towards Trajectory Imputation and Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.16005/) (2023)
- [Non-Probability Sampling Network for Stochastic Human Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.13471/) (2022)
- [Learning Pedestrian Group Representations for Multi-modal Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.09953/) (2022)
- [EigenTrajectory: Low-Rank Descriptors for Multi-Modal Trajectory Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.09306/) (2023)
- [Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network for Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.02930/) (2021)
- [RAIN: Reinforced Hybrid Attention Inference Network for Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.01316/) (2021)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Dual-Attention Network for Multi-Agent Prediction and Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.09117/) (2021)
- [SingularTrajectory: Universal Trajectory Predictor Using Diffusion Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.18452/) (2024)
- [WcDT: World-centric Diffusion Transformer for Traffic Scene Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.02082/) (2024)
- [Can Language Beat Numerical Regression? Language-Based Multimodal Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.18447/) (2024)
- [SMEMO: Social Memory for Trajectory Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.12446/) (2022)
- [Adapting to Length Shift: FlexiLength Network for Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.00742/) (2024)
- [Multi-Agent Dynamic Relational Reasoning for Social Robot Navigation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.12275/) (2024)
- [Grouptron: Dynamic Multi-Scale Graph Convolutional Networks for Group-Aware Dense Crowd Trajectory Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.14128/) (2021)
- [SSAGCN: Social Soft Attention Graph Convolution Network for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.02459/) (2021)
- [Sports-Traj: A Unified Trajectory Generation Model for Multi-Agent Movement in Sports](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.17680/) (2024)
- [A Safe Hierarchical Planning Framework for Complex Driving Scenarios based on Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.06778/) (2021)
- [Injecting Knowledge in Data-driven Vehicle Trajectory Predictors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.04854/) (2021)
- [Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction in Pedestrian-Vehicle Mixed Environments: A Systematic Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.06419/) (2023)
- [Autonomous Driving Strategies at Intersections: Scenarios, State-of-the-Art, and Future Outlooks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13052/) (2021)
- [Interaction Modeling with Multiplex Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.10660/) (2022)
- [Forecasting Human Trajectory from Scene History](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.08732/) (2022)
- [STGlow: A Flow-based Generative Framework with Dual Graphormer for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.11220/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Effective understanding of the environment and accurate trajectory prediction of surrounding dynamic obstacles are critical for intelligent systems such as autonomous vehicles and wheeled mobile robotics navigating in complex scenarios to achieve safe and high-quality decision making, motion planning and control. Due to the uncertain nature of the future, it is desired to make inference from a probability perspective instead of deterministic prediction. In this paper, we propose a conditional generative neural system (CGNS) for probabilistic trajectory prediction to approximate the data distribution, with which realistic, feasible and diverse future trajectory hypotheses can be sampled. The system combines the strengths of conditional latent space learning and variational divergence minimization, and leverages both static context and interaction information with soft attention mechanisms. We also propose a regularization method for incorporating soft constraints into deep neural networks with differentiable barrier functions, which can regulate and push the generated samples into the feasible regions. The proposed system is evaluated on several public benchmark datasets for pedestrian trajectory prediction and a roundabout naturalistic driving dataset collected by ourselves. The experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves better performance than various baseline approaches in terms of prediction accuracy.