# PRECOG: PREdiction Conditioned On Goals in Visual Multi-Agent Settings

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.01296 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.01296/

## Key facts

- Cited by 179 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 3 May 2019.

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 179)

- [Planning-oriented Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10156/) (2022)
- [Large Scale Interactive Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving : The Waymo Open Motion Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.10133/) (2021)
- [TransFuser: Imitation with Transformer-Based Sensor Fusion for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.15997/) (2022)
- [Multi-Modal Fusion Transformer for End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09224/) (2021)
- [GPT-Driver: Learning to Drive with GPT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01415/) (2023)
- [AgentFormer: Agent-Aware Transformers for Socio-Temporal Multi-Agent Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14023/) (2021)
- [DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.09640/) (2021)
- [Wayformer: Motion Forecasting via Simple & Efficient Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05844/) (2022)
- [Motion Transformer with Global Intention Localization and Local Movement Refinement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.13508/) (2022)
- [MultiPath++: Efficient Information Fusion and Trajectory Aggregation for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.14973/) (2021)
- [Parting with Misconceptions about Learning-based Vehicle Motion Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.07962/) (2023)
- [FIERY: Future Instance Prediction in Bird's-Eye View from Surround Monocular Cameras](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.10490/) (2021)
- [Safety-Enhanced Autonomous Driving Using Interpretable Sensor Fusion Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.14024/) (2022)
- [TrafficSim: Learning to Simulate Realistic Multi-Agent Behaviors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.06557/) (2021)
- [Scene Transformer: A unified architecture for predicting multiple agent trajectories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.08417/) (2021)
- [Waymax: An Accelerated, Data-Driven Simulator for Large-Scale Autonomous Driving Research](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08710/) (2023)
- [MotionLM: Multi-Agent Motion Forecasting as Language Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.16534/) (2023)
- [Model-Based Imitation Learning for Urban Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.07729/) (2022)
- [MTR++: Multi-Agent Motion Prediction with Symmetric Scene Modeling and Guided Intention Querying](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.17770/) (2023)
- [Imitation Is Not Enough: Robustifying Imitation with Reinforcement Learning for Challenging Driving Scenarios](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.11419/) (2022)
- [HOME: Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.10968/) (2021)
- [LaneRCNN: Distributed Representations for Graph-Centric Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.06653/) (2021)
- [Multimodal Trajectory Prediction Conditioned on Lane-Graph Traversals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.15004/) (2021)
- [THOMAS: Trajectory Heatmap Output with learned Multi-Agent Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.06607/) (2021)
- [LookOut: Diverse Multi-Future Prediction and Planning for Self-Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.06547/) (2021)
- [The Waymo Open Sim Agents Challenge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.12032/) (2023)
- [M2I: From Factored Marginal Trajectory Prediction to Interactive Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11884/) (2022)
- [BITS: Bi-level Imitation for Traffic Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.12403/) (2022)
- [SimNet: Learning Reactive Self-driving Simulations from Real-world Observations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.12332/) (2021)
- [ScePT: Scene-consistent, Policy-based Trajectory Predictions for Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.13387/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

For autonomous vehicles (AVs) to behave appropriately on roads populated by human-driven vehicles, they must be able to reason about the uncertain intentions and decisions of other drivers from rich perceptual information. Towards these capabilities, we present a probabilistic forecasting model of future interactions between a variable number of agents. We perform both standard forecasting and the novel task of conditional forecasting, which reasons about how all agents will likely respond to the goal of a controlled agent (here, the AV). We train models on real and simulated data to forecast vehicle trajectories given past positions and LIDAR. Our evaluation shows that our model is substantially more accurate in multi-agent driving scenarios compared to existing state-of-the-art. Beyond its general ability to perform conditional forecasting queries, we show that our model's predictions of all agents improve when conditioned on knowledge of the AV's goal, further illustrating its capability to model agent interactions.