# Neutron drip line in the Ca region from Bayesian model averaging

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.07632 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.07632/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 22 Jan 2019.

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Machine Learning in Nuclear Physics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.02309/) (2021)
- [Local Bayesian Dirichlet mixing of imperfect models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.01596/) (2023)
- [Model orthogonalization and Bayesian forecast mixing via Principal Component Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.10839/) (2024)
- [Bridging Theory and Data: Correcting Nuclear Mass Models with Interpretable Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.15203/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The region of heavy calcium isotopes forms the frontier of experimental and theoretical nuclear structure research where the basic concepts of nuclear physics are put to stringent test. The recent discovery of the extremely neutron-rich nuclei around 60Ca [Tarasov, 2018] and the experimental determination of masses for 55-57Ca (Michimasa, 2018] provide unique information about the binding energy surface in this region. To assess the impact of these experimental discoveries on the nuclear landscape's extent, we use global mass models and statistical machine learning to make predictions, with quantified levels of certainty, for bound nuclides between Si and Ti. Using a Bayesian model averaging analysis based on Gaussian-process-based extrapolations we introduce the posterior probability pex for each nucleus to be bound to neutron emission. We find that extrapolations for drip-line locations, at which the nuclear binding ends, are consistent across the global mass models used, in spite of significant variations between their raw predictions. In particular, considering the current experimental information and current global mass models, we predict that 68Ca has an average posterior probability pex≈76% to be bound to two-neutron emission while the nucleus 61Ca is likely to decay by emitting a neutron (pex≈ 46 %).