# Simple Confidence Intervals for MCMC Without CLTs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.00126 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.00126/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 1 Dec 2018.

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Rare Event Analysis of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.06791/) (2026)
- [Estimating optimal PAC-Bayes bounds with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.20053/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This short note argues that 95% confidence intervals for MCMC estimates can be obtained even without establishing a CLT, by multiplying their widths by 2.3.