# On Human Predictions with Explanations and Predictions of Machine Learning Models: A Case Study on Deception Detection

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.07901 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.07901/

## Key facts

- Cited by 159 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 19 Nov 2018.

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 159)

- [To Trust or to Think: Cognitive Forcing Functions Can Reduce Overreliance on AI in AI-assisted Decision-making](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.09692/) (2021)
- [Explanations Can Reduce Overreliance on AI Systems During Decision-Making](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.06823/) (2022)
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- [Towards a Science of Human-AI Decision Making: A Survey of Empirical Studies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.11471/) (2021)
- [Towards Human-centered Explainable AI: A Survey of User Studies for Model Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.11584/) (2022)
- [Appropriate Reliance on AI Advice: Conceptualization and the Effect of Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.02187/) (2023)
- [If Only We Had Better Counterfactual Explanations: Five Key Deficits to Rectify in the Evaluation of Counterfactual XAI Techniques](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.01035/) (2021)
- [Understanding the Role of Human Intuition on Reliance in Human-AI Decision-Making with Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.07255/) (2023)
- [Hypothesis Generation with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.04326/) (2024)
- [Human-AI Collaboration via Conditional Delegation: A Case Study of Content Moderation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.11788/) (2022)
- [Who Should I Trust: AI or Myself? Leveraging Human and AI Correctness Likelihood to Promote Appropriate Trust in AI-Assisted Decision-Making](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.05809/) (2023)
- ["I'm Not Sure, But...": Examining the Impact of Large Language Models' Uncertainty Expression on User Reliance and Trust](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.00623/) (2024)
- [Beyond Expertise and Roles: A Framework to Characterize the Stakeholders of Interpretable Machine Learning and their Needs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.09824/) (2021)
- ["Help Me Help the AI": Understanding How Explainability Can Support Human-AI Interaction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03735/) (2022)
- [Understanding the Effect of Out-of-distribution Examples and Interactive Explanations on Human-AI Decision Making](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.05303/) (2021)
- [How can I choose an explainer? An Application-grounded Evaluation of Post-hoc Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.08758/) (2021)
- [Explanation-Based Human Debugging of NLP Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.15135/) (2021)
- [Do People Engage Cognitively with AI? Impact of AI Assistance on Incidental Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.05402/) (2022)
- [Rethinking Explainability as a Dialogue: A Practitioner's Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.01875/) (2022)
- [In Search of Verifiability: Explanations Rarely Enable Complementary Performance in AI-Advised Decision Making](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.07722/) (2023)
- [Knowing About Knowing: An Illusion of Human Competence Can Hinder Appropriate Reliance on AI Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.11333/) (2023)
- [Fostering Appropriate Reliance on Large Language Models: The Role of Explanations, Sources, and Inconsistencies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.08554/) (2025)
- [Towards Human-AI Deliberation: Design and Evaluation of LLM-Empowered Deliberative AI for AI-Assisted Decision-Making](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.16812/) (2024)
- [Improving Human-AI Collaboration With Descriptions of AI Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.06937/) (2023)
- [Advancing Human-AI Complementarity: The Impact of User Expertise and Algorithmic Tuning on Joint Decision Making](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.07960/) (2022)
- [Who Goes First? Influences of Human-AI Workflow on Decision Making in Clinical Imaging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.09696/) (2022)
- [Human-AI Collaboration: The Effect of AI Delegation on Human Task Performance and Task Satisfaction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.09224/) (2023)
- [Explainable Medical Imaging AI Needs Human-Centered Design: Guidelines and Evidence from a Systematic Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.12596/) (2021)
- [The Utility of Explainable AI in Ad Hoc Human-Machine Teaming](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.03943/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Humans are the final decision makers in critical tasks that involve ethical and legal concerns, ranging from recidivism prediction, to medical diagnosis, to fighting against fake news. Although machine learning models can sometimes achieve impressive performance in these tasks, these tasks are not amenable to full automation. To realize the potential of machine learning for improving human decisions, it is important to understand how assistance from machine learning models affects human performance and human agency. In this paper, we use deception detection as a testbed and investigate how we can harness explanations and predictions of machine learning models to improve human performance while retaining human agency. We propose a spectrum between full human agency and full automation, and develop varying levels of machine assistance along the spectrum that gradually increase the influence of machine predictions. We find that without showing predicted labels, explanations alone slightly improve human performance in the end task. In comparison, human performance is greatly improved by showing predicted labels (>20% relative improvement) and can be further improved by explicitly suggesting strong machine performance. Interestingly, when predicted labels are shown, explanations of machine predictions induce a similar level of accuracy as an explicit statement of strong machine performance. Our results demonstrate a tradeoff between human performance and human agency and show that explanations of machine predictions can moderate this tradeoff.