# Multilevel Monte Carlo estimation of expected information gains

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.07546 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.07546/

## Key facts

- Cited by 13 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 19 Nov 2018.

## Built on by (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Modern Bayesian Experimental Design](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.14545/) (2023)
- [Optimizing Sequential Experimental Design with Deep Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.00821/) (2022)
- [Active Bayesian Causal Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.02063/) (2022)
- [Constructing unbiased gradient estimators with finite variance for conditional stochastic optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.01991/) (2022)
- [Nested Expectations with Kernel Quadrature](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18284/) (2025)
- [Multilevel neural simulation-based inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.06087/) (2025)
- [Accelerating Look-ahead in Bayesian Optimization: Multilevel Monte Carlo is All you Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02111/) (2024)
- [Expected information gain estimation via density approximations: Sample allocation and dimension reduction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.08390/) (2024)
- [Optimal Experimental Design for Reliable Learning of History-Dependent Constitutive Laws](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.12365/) (2026)
- [Sequential Bayesian experimental designs via reinforcement learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07472/) (2022)
- [Leveraging Nested MLMC for Sequential Neural Posterior Estimation with Intractable Likelihoods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.16776/) (2024)
- [Approximation of differential entropy in Bayesian optimal experimental design](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.00734/) (2025)
- [ShaplEIG: Bayesian Experimental Design for Shapley Value Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.02247/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The expected information gain is an important quality criterion of Bayesian experimental designs, which measures how much the information entropy about uncertain quantity of interest θ is reduced on average by collecting relevant data Y. However, estimating the expected information gain has been considered computationally challenging since it is defined as a nested expectation with an outer expectation with respect to Y and an inner expectation with respect to θ. In fact, the standard, nested Monte Carlo method requires a total computational cost of O(varepsilon-3) to achieve a root-mean-square accuracy of varepsilon. In this paper we develop an efficient algorithm to estimate the expected information gain by applying a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method. To be precise, we introduce an antithetic MLMC estimator for the expected information gain and provide a sufficient condition on the data model under which the antithetic property of the MLMC estimator is well exploited such that optimal complexity of O(varepsilon-2) is achieved. Furthermore, we discuss how to incorporate importance sampling techniques within the MLMC estimator to avoid arithmetic underflow. Numerical experiments show the considerable computational cost savings compared to the nested Monte Carlo method for a simple test case and a more realistic pharmacokinetic model.