# Modeling and Predicting Popularity Dynamics via Deep Learning Attention Mechanism

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.02117 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.02117/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 6 Nov 2018.

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Graph Representation Learning for Popularity Prediction Problem: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.07632/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

An ability to predict the popularity dynamics of individual items within a complex evolving system has important implications in a wide range of domains. Here we propose a deep learning attention mechanism to model the process through which individual items gain their popularity. We analyze the interpretability of the model with the four key phenomena confirmed independently in the previous studies of long-term popularity dynamics quantification, including the intrinsic quality, the aging effect, the recency effect and the Matthew effect. We analyze the effectiveness of introducing attention model in popularity dynamics prediction. Extensive experiments on a real-large citation data set demonstrate that the designed deep learning attention mechanism possesses remarkable power at predicting the long-term popularity dynamics. It consistently outperforms the existing methods, and achieves a significant performance improvement.