# Uncertainty-aware Short-term Motion Prediction of Traffic Actors for Autonomous Driving

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.05819 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.05819/

## Key facts

- Cited by 90 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 17 Aug 2018.

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 90)

- [ST-P3: End-to-end Vision-based Autonomous Driving via Spatial-Temporal Feature Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.07601/) (2022)
- [Motion Transformer with Global Intention Localization and Local Movement Refinement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.13508/) (2022)
- [FIERY: Future Instance Prediction in Bird's-Eye View from Surround Monocular Cameras](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.10490/) (2021)
- [BEVerse: Unified Perception and Prediction in Birds-Eye-View for Vision-Centric Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.09743/) (2022)
- [MTR++: Multi-Agent Motion Prediction with Symmetric Scene Modeling and Guided Intention Querying](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.17770/) (2023)
- [Generating Useful Accident-Prone Driving Scenarios via a Learned Traffic Prior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.05077/) (2021)
- [PlanT: Explainable Planning Transformers via Object-Level Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.14222/) (2022)
- [End-to-End Vectorized HD-map Construction with Piecewise Bezier Curve](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.09700/) (2023)
- [Explainability of deep vision-based autonomous driving systems: Review and challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.05307/) (2021)
- [Conditional-Flow NeRF: Accurate 3D Modelling with Reliable Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.10192/) (2022)
- [Learning to Predict Vehicle Trajectories with Model-based Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.04027/) (2021)
- [ParCo: Part-Coordinating Text-to-Motion Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.18512/) (2024)
- [Deep Imitation Learning for Autonomous Driving in Generic Urban Scenarios with Enhanced Safety](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.00640/) (2019)
- [On Exposing the Challenging Long Tail in Future Prediction of Traffic Actors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.12474/) (2021)
- [ADAPT: Efficient Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction with Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.14187/) (2023)
- [Vision-Language-Action Models for Autonomous Driving: Past, Present, and Future](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.16760/) (2025)
- [Imagining The Road Ahead: Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction via Differentiable Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.11212/) (2021)
- [3D Human Motion Prediction: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.01593/) (2022)
- [R-Pred: Two-Stage Motion Prediction Via Tube-Query Attention-Based Trajectory Refinement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.08609/) (2022)
- [Machine Learning for Autonomous Vehicle's Trajectory Prediction: A comprehensive survey, Challenges, and Future Research Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.07527/) (2023)
- [Exploring Imitation Learning for Autonomous Driving with Feedback Synthesizer and Differentiable Rasterization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.01882/) (2021)
- [Efficient and Robust LiDAR-Based End-to-End Navigation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.09932/) (2021)
- [CRAT-Pred: Vehicle Trajectory Prediction with Crystal Graph Convolutional Neural Networks and Multi-Head Self-Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.04488/) (2022)
- [T4P: Test-Time Training of Trajectory Prediction via Masked Autoencoder and Actor-specific Token Memory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.10052/) (2024)
- [Deep Structured Reactive Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.06832/) (2021)
- [Unsupervised Self-Driving Attention Prediction via Uncertainty Mining and Knowledge Embedding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.09706/) (2023)
- [SCENE: Reasoning about Traffic Scenes using Heterogeneous Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.03512/) (2023)
- [RS2G: Data-Driven Scene-Graph Extraction and Embedding for Robust Autonomous Perception and Scenario Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08600/) (2023)
- [Safety-aware Motion Prediction with Unseen Vehicles for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.01510/) (2021)
- [Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving: Progress, Limitations, and Future Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.03262/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We address one of the crucial aspects necessary for safe and efficient operations of autonomous vehicles, namely predicting future state of traffic actors in the autonomous vehicle's surroundings. We introduce a deep learning-based approach that takes into account a current world state and produces raster images of each actor's vicinity. The rasters are then used as inputs to deep convolutional models to infer future movement of actors while also accounting for and capturing inherent uncertainty of the prediction task. Extensive experiments on real-world data strongly suggest benefits of the proposed approach. Moreover, following completion of the offline tests the system was successfully tested onboard self-driving vehicles.