# Anticipating cryptocurrency prices using machine learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.08550 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.08550/

## Key facts

- Cited by 9 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 22 May 2018.

## Built on by (most cited first, 9 of 9)

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- [Ethereum Price Prediction Employing Large Language Models for Short-term and Few-shot Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.23190/) (2025)
- [Financial Vision Based Differential Privacy Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.14075/) (2021)
- [Forecasting Cryptocurrency Returns from Sentiment Signals: An Analysis of BERT Classifiers and Weak Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.05781/) (2022)
- [Machine Learning on Blockchain Data: A Systematic Mapping Study](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.17081/) (2024)
- [CryptoMamba: Leveraging State Space Models for Accurate Bitcoin Price Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.01010/) (2025)
- [Machine Learning-Based Bitcoin Trading Under Transaction Costs: Evidence From Walk-Forward Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.00060/) (2026)
- [RCURRENCY: Live Digital Asset Trading Using a Recurrent Neural Network-based Forecasting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.06972/) (2021)
- [Predictive Extrema, Unprofitable Policies: An AI-Assisted Audit of Candle-Based Binance Spot Timing Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.19453/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Machine learning and AI-assisted trading have attracted growing interest for the past few years. Here, we use this approach to test the hypothesis that the inefficiency of the cryptocurrency market can be exploited to generate abnormal profits. We analyse daily data for 1,681 cryptocurrencies for the period between Nov. 2015 and Apr. 2018. We show that simple trading strategies assisted by state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms outperform standard benchmarks. Our results show that nontrivial, but ultimately simple, algorithmic mechanisms can help anticipate the short-term evolution of the cryptocurrency market.