# A Multi-Horizon Quantile Recurrent Forecaster

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.11053 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.11053/

## Key facts

- Cited by 211 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 29 Nov 2017.

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 211)

- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [TS2Vec: Towards Universal Representation of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.10466/) (2021)
- [Non-stationary Transformers: Exploring the Stationarity in Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14415/) (2022)
- [Monash Time Series Forecasting Archive](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.06643/) (2021)
- [TSMixer: An All-MLP Architecture for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.06053/) (2023)
- [Sundial: A Family of Highly Capable Time Series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.00816/) (2025)
- [N-HiTS: Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12886/) (2022)
- [CoST: Contrastive Learning of Disentangled Seasonal-Trend Representations for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.01575/) (2022)
- [Lag-Llama: Towards Foundation Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08278/) (2023)
- [ForecastPFN: Synthetically-Trained Zero-Shot Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.01933/) (2023)
- [Pathformer: Multi-scale Transformers with Adaptive Pathways for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.05956/) (2024)
- [Generative Time Series Forecasting with Diffusion, Denoise, and Disentanglement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.03028/) (2023)
- [Predict, Refine, Synthesize: Self-Guiding Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.11494/) (2023)
- [Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.03463/) (2022)
- [Moirai 2.0: When Less Is More for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.11698/) (2025)
- [Domain Adaptation for Time Series Forecasting via Attention Sharing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.06828/) (2021)
- [Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.05522/) (2021)
- [CARD: Channel Aligned Robust Blend Transformer for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.12095/) (2023)
- [SegRNN: Segment Recurrent Neural Network for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.11200/) (2023)
- [Quantifying Uncertainty in Deep Spatiotemporal Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.11982/) (2021)
- [Criteria for Classifying Forecasting Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.03523/) (2022)
- [ScoreGrad: Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting with Continuous Energy-based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.10121/) (2021)
- [Multi-resolution Time-Series Transformer for Long-term Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.04147/) (2023)
- [AutoGluon-TimeSeries: AutoML for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.05566/) (2023)
- [ProbTS: Benchmarking Point and Distributional Forecasting across Diverse Prediction Horizons](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07446/) (2023)
- [Temporal Latent Auto-Encoder: A Method for Probabilistic Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.10460/) (2021)
- [Learning Quantile Functions without Quantile Crossing for Distribution-free Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.06581/) (2021)
- [Towards a General Time Series Forecasting Model with Unified Representation and Adaptive Transfer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.17478/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We propose a framework for general probabilistic multi-step time series regression. Specifically, we exploit the expressiveness and temporal nature of Sequence-to-Sequence Neural Networks (e.g. recurrent and convolutional structures), the nonparametric nature of Quantile Regression and the efficiency of Direct Multi-Horizon Forecasting. A new training scheme, *forking-sequences*, is designed for sequential nets to boost stability and performance. We show that the approach accommodates both temporal and static covariates, learning across multiple related series, shifting seasonality, future planned event spikes and cold-starts in real life large-scale forecasting. The performance of the framework is demonstrated in an application to predict the future demand of items sold on Amazon.com, and in a public probabilistic forecasting competition to predict electricity price and load.