# Risk Assessment of Multi-timescale Cascading Outages based on Markovian Tree Search

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1603.03935 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.03935/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 12 Mar 2016.

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Real-Time Risky Fault-Chain Search using Time-Varying Graph RNNs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.09775/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In the risk assessment of cascading outages, the rationality of simulation and efficiency of computation are both of great significance. To overcome the drawback of sampling-based methods that huge computation resources are required and the shortcoming of initial contingency selection practices that the dependencies in sequences of outages are omitted, this paper proposes a novel risk assessment approach by searching on Markovian Tree. The Markovian tree model is reformulated from the quasi-dynamic multi-timescale simulation model proposed recently to ensure reasonable modeling and simulation of cascading outages. Then a tree search scheme is established to avoid duplicated simulations on same cascade paths, significantly saving computation time. To accelerate the convergence of risk assessment, a risk estimation index is proposed to guide the search for states with major contributions to the risk, and the risk assessment is realized based on the risk estimation index with a forward tree search and backward update algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated on a 4-node power system, and its convergence profile as well as efficiency is demonstrated on the RTS-96 test system.