# Linguistic Harbingers of Betrayal: A Case Study on an Online Strategy Game

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1506.04744 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04744/

## Key facts

- Cited by 16 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 15 Jun 2015.

## Built on by (most cited first, 16 of 16)

- [Putting the Con in Context: Identifying Deceptive Actors in the Game of Mafia](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.02253/) (2022)
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- [Designing an Automatic Agent for Repeated Language based Persuasion Games](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.04976/) (2021)
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- [Dynamic Epistemic Friction in Dialogue](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.10934/) (2025)
- [Should I Trust You? Detecting Deception in Negotiations using Counterfactual RL](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.12436/) (2025)
- [AutoReply: Detecting Nonsense in Dialogue Introspectively with Discriminative Replies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.12615/) (2022)
- [Measuring Fine-Grained Negotiation Tactics of Humans and LLMs in Diplomacy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.18292/) (2025)
- [In-class Data Analysis Replications: Teaching Students while Testing Science](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.16491/) (2023)
- [Beyond Text: Leveraging Multi-Task Learning and Cognitive Appraisal Theory for Post-Purchase Intention Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.08182/) (2024)
- [CSP4SDG: Constraint and Information-Theory Based Role Identification in Social Deduction Games with LLM-Enhanced Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.06175/) (2025)
- [Improving User Behavior Prediction: Leveraging Annotator Metadata in Supervised Machine Learning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.21000/) (2025)
- [Do You Trust Me? Cognitive-Affective Signatures of Trustworthiness in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.10719/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Interpersonal relations are fickle, with close friendships often dissolving into enmity. In this work, we explore linguistic cues that presage such transitions by studying dyadic interactions in an online strategy game where players form alliances and break those alliances through betrayal. We characterize friendships that are unlikely to last and examine temporal patterns that foretell betrayal. We reveal that subtle signs of imminent betrayal are encoded in the conversational patterns of the dyad, even if the victim is not aware of the relationship's fate. In particular, we find that lasting friendships exhibit a form of balance that manifests itself through language. In contrast, sudden changes in the balance of certain conversational attributes---such as positive sentiment, politeness, or focus on future planning---signal impending betrayal.