# 140 Characters to Victory?: Using Twitter to Predict the UK 2015 General Election

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1505.01511 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.01511/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 6 May 2015.

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [ElectionSim: Massive Population Election Simulation Powered by Large Language Model Driven Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.20746/) (2024)
- [Forecasting election results by studying brand importance in online news](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05762/) (2021)
- [Socially Enhanced Situation Awareness from Microblogs using Artificial Intelligence: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.07272/) (2022)
- [A Comparison of Approaches for Imbalanced Classification Problems in the Context of Retrieving Relevant Documents for an Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.01600/) (2022)
- [Design and analysis of tweet-based election models for the 2021 Mexican legislative election](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.00626/) (2023)
- [BTPD: A Multilingual Hand-curated Dataset of Bengali Transnational Political Discourse Across Online Communities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.06813/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The election forecasting 'industry' is a growing one, both in the volume of scholars producing forecasts and methodological diversity. In recent years a new approach has emerged that relies on social media and particularly Twitter data to predict election outcomes. While some studies have shown the method to hold a surprising degree of accuracy there has been criticism over the lack of consistency and clarity in the methods used, along with inevitable problems of population bias. In this paper we set out a 'baseline' model for using Twitter as an election forecasting tool that we then apply to the UK 2015 General Election. The paper builds on existing literature by extending the use of Twitter as a forecasting tool to the UK context and identifying its limitations, particularly with regard to its application in a multi-party environment with geographic concentration of power for minor parties.