# Short Term Electricity Load Forecasting on Varying Levels of Aggregation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1404.0058 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1404.0058/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 31 Mar 2014.

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [A Global Modeling Approach for Load Forecasting in Distribution Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.00493/) (2022)
- [Extending Load Forecasting from Zonal Aggregates to Individual Nodes for Transmission System Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.14983/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We propose a simple empirical scaling law that describes load forecasting accuracy at different levels of aggregation. The model is justified based on a simple decomposition of individual consumption patterns. We show that for different forecasting methods and horizons, aggregating more customers improves the relative forecasting performance up to specific point. Beyond this point, no more improvement in relative performance can be obtained.