# Efficient Modeling and Forecasting of the Electricity Spot Price

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1402.7027 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1402.7027/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 27 Feb 2014.

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Simulation-based Forecasting for Intraday Power Markets: Modelling Fundamental Drivers for Location, Shape and Scale of the Price Distribution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.13002/) (2022)
- [Forecasting Electricity Prices](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.11735/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The increasing importance of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, has led to new forces in the formation of electricity prices. Hence, this paper introduces an econometric model for the hourly time series of electricity prices of the European Power Exchange (EPEX) which incorporates specific features like renewable energy. The model consists of several sophisticated and established approaches and can be regarded as a periodic VAR-TARCH with wind power, solar power, and load as influences on the time series. It is able to map the distinct and well-known features of electricity prices in Germany. An efficient iteratively reweighted lasso approach is used for the estimation. Moreover, it is shown that several existing models are outperformed by the procedure developed in this paper.