# The cost of using exact confidence intervals for a binomial proportion

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1303.1288 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/1303.1288/

## Key facts

- Cited by 11 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 6 Mar 2013.

## Built on by (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [Interpreting Attention Layer Outputs with Sparse Autoencoders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.17759/) (2024)
- [Position: Don't Use the CLT in LLM Evals With Fewer Than a Few Hundred Datapoints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01747/) (2025)
- [Incremental Randomized Smoothing Certification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19521/) (2023)
- [Discrete Randomized Smoothing Meets Quantum Computing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.00895/) (2024)
- [IW-GAE: Importance Weighted Group Accuracy Estimation for Improved Calibration and Model Selection in Unsupervised Domain Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10611/) (2023)
- [Barrier Certificates for Unknown Systems with Latent States and Polynomial Dynamics using Bayesian Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.01807/) (2025)
- [CeTAD: Towards Certified Toxicity-Aware Distance in Vision Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.10661/) (2025)
- [Pilot Study on Student Public Opinion Regarding GAI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.04336/) (2026)
- [Efficient Distribution Learning with Error Bounds in Wasserstein Distance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.08063/) (2026)
- [From matrix inversion to constraints: provably tighter confidence regions for importance weights in label shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.14802/) (2026)
- [Available Guardrails: Certifying Selective Prediction across ML Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.22048/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

When computing a confidence interval for a binomial proportion p one must choose between using an exact interval, which has a coverage probability of at least 1-α for all values of p, and a shorter approximate interval, which may have lower coverage for some p but that on average has coverage equal to 1-α. We investigate the cost of using the exact one and two-sided Clopper--Pearson confidence intervals rather than shorter approximate intervals, first in terms of increased expected length and then in terms of the increase in sample size required to obtain a desired expected length. Using asymptotic expansions, we also give a closed-form formula for determining the sample size for the exact Clopper--Pearson methods. For two-sided intervals, our investigation reveals an interesting connection between the frequentist Clopper--Pearson interval and Bayesian intervals based on noninformative priors.
